With only a little searching on the internet, you’ll find pages that claim to have “solved” craps.
Craps is the most exciting game offered in a casino. It is also the fastest game and one of the best games for winning money. Each throw of the dice offers another chance to win money, and the payoffs are made continuously. Because the game moves so quickly, craps offers the chance of winning huge sums of money in a short time period. See full list on wikihow.com.
You’ll also find sites promising to teach you how to win “consistently” at craps.
They claim that you can make profits on a regular basis by shooting dice and betting on other shooters.
This isn’t one of those pages.
That’s because I’m not a liar.
Here’s the truth about how to win at real money craps almost every time you play.
Winning Craps Systems
I can tell you where to find the winning craps systems. They’re right next to the unicorns in the zoo and the mermaids in the aquarium.
How do craps systems work?
They use a combination of bets that are meant to hedge against losses. They also usually involve raising and lowering the size of your bets based on what’s happened on previous rolls and previous bets.
Often, they try to capitalize on hot and cold streaks.
Here’s the problem:
Some of those negative numbers are bigger than others, but they’re all negative.
And if you double or triple those bets because of something that happened on a previous bet, you still have a negative number.
And yes, you will see winning and losing streaks at the craps table.
The problem is that you have no way to predict when these winning and losing streaks will begin or end. They’re only available in hindsight.
The nature of gambling games – craps especially – is to be streaky.
But a streak can win or end at any time.
Here Are 10 Easy Steps to Beat Craps – Yeah, Right
I don’t have a problem with writers offering tips for how to beat craps. Heck, I offer tips for craps players in some of my posts, too. My problem is the overselling of these tips.
But heck, even that’s not too bad.
What’s really bad are people who take your money in exchange for some kind of unbeatable craps system. These craps systems are NOT unbeatable. In fact, in the long run, they can’t win.
You can’t defeat the math at the craps table by combining various bets at the table. There are NO craps bets with a positive expectation. The closest you can get is a bet called the odds bet which has no house edge at all.
But just because that bet is a break-even bet doesn’t mean it can help you get an edge at the other bets. In fact, you’re not able to place an odds bet unless you’ve placed a pass bet first, which has a house edge.
But there’s one possible exception to this…
Taking the Odds Bet on Someone Else’s Bet
I read a book by Frank Scoblete where he suggested becoming the “odds man.” I haven’t tried this in a casino, so I don’t know if it’s a viable strategy or not. I do know that it won’t get you an edge over the casino.
Here’s how it works:
You find a craps player who’s betting the pass line or the don’t pass line – but who isn’t taking or placing odds.
You ask that player if you can make odds bets on his bets.
If the casino allows this, and if the other player allows this, you can place or take odds without having to make the negative expectation bet that precedes the odds bet.
But this still doesn’t give you an edge.
The odds bet is, in the long run, a break-even proposition.
There’s a big difference between breaking even and making a profit. Sure, in the short run, you might see a quick profit, but over enough time, this strategy is just a break-even strategy.
A break-even strategy is far better than a losing strategy. I suppose if you take advantage of some comp drinks, it might even be considered marginally profitable.
Why Does the House Have a Mathematical Edge in Craps?
The mathematical edge in craps resembles the mathematical edge for every other casino game. It’s just a function of offering bets that pay off at less than the odds of winning.
The easiest example to understand is the even money bet.
Most people realize that if you place an even money bet and have a 50% probability of winning that bet, you’ll break even in the long run. By definition, a 50% probability of winning means you’ll win as often as you lose.
And since even money means you’re betting the same amount you’ll win, you’ll eventually see results close to a net loss or win of $0, regardless of the size of your bets.
But you don’t have a 50% probability of winning the even money bets in craps. The probability of winning an even money bet in craps is always slightly less than 50%.
In this case, the probability of winning the pass line bet is 49.3%, which is close to 50%, but it still gives the casino an edge. The casino will win this bet 50.7% of the time.
In the long run, you can’t win with those odds.
And that’s arguable the best bet at the table. (The probability of winning the don’t pass bet is higher by 5/100 of a percent, but that’s such a small number that it’s not especially interesting.
What if I Hedge My Bets?
Hedging your bets doesn’t work. The idea is that you bet on one outcome, but you also place a bet on another outcome that will compensate for when your initial bet loses.
This sounds good in theory, but it doesn’t work in the long run for one simple reason:
Your original bet AND your hedge both have a house edge.
In other words, you’re just adding one negative expectation bet with another hoping to get a positive expectation.
But that’s not how negative numbers work.
Add any set of negative numbers together, and you’ll get a negative sum.
Okay, But What if You Could Control the Outcome of the Die Rolls?
The biggest potential I see for beating craps is learning how to exert some control over the outcome of the die rolls. The idea is that by holding the dice in a specific position (“setting the dice”), and then by throwing the dice without a lot of force (“a controlled throw”), you can reduce the probability of losing by enough to shift the already low house edge in favor of the bettor.
Is this possible?
Frank Scoblete thinks so, but he suggests a lot of hare-brained strategies, so I don’t lend him much credence.
But I’ve also seen Michael Shackleford say that he’s seen some pretty impressive demonstrations, and I have a lot of respect for him.
Do I think it’s practical to become a controlled dice shooter?
Let’s talk about what that would involve in the next section.
What Would It Take to Become a Controlled Shooter?
I’ve seen being a controlled shooter called different things. Scoblete calls such shooters “rhythmic rollers.” I’ve also seen them called “dice setters.”
The verbs used to describe this approach varies, too. I’ve seen it called “controlled shooting” or “dice setting” more often than anything else.
The idea is to learn how to roll the dice well enough that you can reduce the odds of rolling a 7 by a significant enough margin that you flip the odds from favoring the house to where they favor the bettor. (This assumes that you’re betting the pass line, of course.)
The first thing you would need to do to learn how to set dice is to find an instructional video, a book, or a coach. Those aren’t hard to find, but I wouldn’t spend a lot of money on such a thing.
The next thing you’ll need is somewhere to practice. This includes having a realistic craps table with similar dimensions to what you’d find in an actual casino. It also includes having room for that craps table.
Then you need to practice what you’ve learned from the video, book, or coach on that table.
Finally, you’ll need to track your results. This is where the rubber hits the road. To be statistically sure of how well you’re affecting the odds, you’ll need at least 1000 trials.
And the more trials you record, the more accurate your accounting of your skill at dice throwing will be.
One more thing…
I suspect that dice control might be like other feats of athleticism or skill. Some people just might not have a knack for it. It’s possible that some people just might be able to learn how to do it, even if it is possible, and even if they do practice.
95% of poker players lose money in the long run. This means that only 5% get an edge.
My guess is that a similar percentage of dice shooters have the knack for controlling the dice. It might even be a smaller number than that.
Conclusion
Craps is a great game, and I love it. And you can win a fortune playing craps in almost no time at all.
But the idea that you win at craps consistently or “almost every time you play” is ludicrous.
If the casinos thought you had a way to beat craps, they’d back you off the game – just like they do with card counters.
When’s the last time you saw the casino tell a craps player he’s too skilled?
Yeah, me neither.
Craps seems like a totally random game. After all, you simply try to toss dice off a diamond-patterned wall.
And you don’t necessarily have to hit the wall. But casinos want you to make an attempt to ensure randomness.
These factors seemingly produce uncontrolled results. However, a small segment of the craps community believes you can influence your results with a certain technique.
This technique is referred to as “dice control” (a.k.a. controlled shooting). It involves the art of tossing dice in a manner that helps you control the winning numbers as you play real money craps.
Dice control sounds great in theory, but it’s actually a scam. I’ll explain more on this method along with why it’s a complete farce.
Basics of Dice Control
The term “dice control” says everything. You’re controlling how you toss the dice. But how do you pull this off?
Everything begins with how you “set” the dice. Setting refers to holding the cubes in a specific manner, with certain numbers covered and exposed.
How To Win Money At Craps
The V-shape is one of the most classic sets. It involves holding the dice so that the threes form a V-shape. It’s supposed to reduce your odds of throwing a seven.
The next matter is to toss the dice in a consistent manner. You’re aiming to kiss them off the back wall and reduce randomness.
This feat certainly isn’t easy when considering the diamond-patterned wall. But then again, you don’t need to control the outcome very often to gain an edge.
How To Win At Craps Video
Assuming you can reduce your “sevens rolls ratio” (RSR) by just a bit, then you can swing the odds in your favor. RSR alludes to the ratio of rolls that produce a seven against those that don’t.
Your odds of rolling a seven are one in six, or an RSR of 6:1 (16.67% of the time). But if you can improve to just 6.5:1, then you’re guaranteed profits over time as a “right” bettor (e.g. pass line). Do even better than this, and you’ll be rolling in the winnings.
Experts advise either buying a real craps table or rigging your own for practice purposes. The latter option is more feasible when considering the cost and space requirements of a real table.
These experts also claim that you must practice for months to develop a consistent toss. This seems reasonable when considering how impossible it is to actually control your throws.
You supposedly need to approach this method like a professional athlete hones their craft. A pro basketball player doesn’t just start out hitting 80% of their free throws. Instead, they need to work up to these skills.
The same is allegedly true of dice control in that practice makes perfect. Top craps players are said to toss dice for hours a day outside of the casino.
What’s the Promise of Dice Control?
Some of the biggest proponents of controlled shooting include Dominic LoRiggio, Chris Pawlicki, and Frank Scoblete.
These gambling authors claim that craps is a beatable game. They also contend that you can make a fortune over time with enough hard work.
Scoblete often writes about a late gambler who went by the nickname “The Captain.” He claims that The Captain regularly beat casinos out of big winnings.
Besides earning money, another benefit of dice control is that it flies under the casino’s radar. Staff members will turn a blind eye towards controlled shooters. Therefore, you can use this technique without being hassled.
One more benefit is that dice control is physical in nature. You’ll find that perfecting your dice toss is more fun than sitting around counting cards or trying to see the dealer’s hole card (a.k.a. hole carding).
You may even come to love the practice element. You can treat this matter like a fun game where you want to be the best.
Why Is Dice Control a Complete Scam?
The biggest question mark surrounding controlled shooting is that it’s not banned by casinos. Gambling venues normally don’t care if somebody sets the dice and throws with the same consistency every time.
Casinos are staunchly against allowing advantage gamblers to run over them. They harass and even ban successful card counters to prevent this from happening.
Yet they could care less when it comes to dice setters. Dealers allow these so-called advantage players to set dice within reason.
Now, the aforementioned gambling authors will tout how casinos do harass controlled shooters. They’ll conjure up stories about a dealer or pit boss trying to back off a dice controller.
Another problem with dice control is that there are no reliable examples of successful players. Scoblete’s examples of The Captain are the only stories we have to go off of. But Scoblete has no actual proof that The Captain truly beat casinos or even existed.
Contrast this to other advantage play techniques, like card counting or wheel bias. Both of these strategies have produced documented cases of big winners.
Perhaps another fishy sign is the dice control courses run by LoRiggio and Scoblete. The pair operate Golden Touch seminars, where they teach players controlled shooting for the low price of $1,500.
Of course, they claim that the lofty cost is due to them giving away such valuable information. However, paying $1,500 for an advantage gambling method that’s unproven is over the top.
Many craps enthusiasts want to believe that the game can be beaten through skill. But looking at the facts, things just don’t add up.
Is There a Reliable Way to Beat Craps?
I strongly contend that there’s no legal way to beat craps on a consistent basis. You actually can top the casinos through dice sliding. However, this technique doesn’t satisfy the legal requirement.
What You Need To Know To Win Regularly At Craps Games
The only real way to win in craps is by making good bets and backing them with odds. You start this process by focusing on pass line, come, don’t pass line, and don’t come.
Pass line (made on come-out roll) and come (made after) both have a 1.41% house edge. Don’t pass line (made on come-out roll) and don’t come (made after) each have a 1.36% house advantage.
You can back any of the four aforementioned bets once a “point” number has been established. Betting bigger odds means that a larger portion of your wager won’t be subject to the casino house edge.
Here’s an example to illustrate how larger odds lower the overall house advantage on your wagers:
- 2x odds pass line = 0.848% house edge
- 2x odds don’t pass line = 0.682% house edge
- 5x odds pass line = 0.326%
- 5x odds don’t pass line = 0.227%
- 10x odds pass line = 0.184%
- 10x odds don’t pass line = 0.124%
- 20x odds pass line = 0.099%
- 20x odds don’t pass line = 0.065%
The problem with higher odds is two-fold:
- You must be able to afford the bet.
- Most casinos don’t offer 10x or 20x odds.
Regarding the first point, your odds bet needs to match its multiple in relation to the original wager. If you bet $10 on pass line and take 10x odds, for example, then you must wager an additional $100 ($110 total).
As for the second dilemma, you may not find a casino in your area that allows higher than 5x odds. But you can still benefit with odds ranging from 1x to 5x.
Conclusion
I seriously hope that you haven’t paid for any dice control courses or worked on your toss for long. If so, then you’ve been scammed!
Controlled shooting simply doesn’t work. Instead, it’s the invention of clever gambling authors who want you to believe that craps can be beaten for the right price.
If you’re serious enough to spend hours practicing your toss and, most importantly, pay $1,500 for a course, then you can win.
But this narrative is complete BS. You merely need look at how casinos couldn’t care less about controlled shooters to see the truth.
Dice setters fall into the latter category. Nobody can toss a pair of small cubes 12 to 14 feet down a table, hit a diamond-patterned wall, and expect consistent results.
You’re better off throwing your time into a real advantage play technique, like card counting or hole carding. Leave controlled shooting to the delusional crowd who believes that they can make long-term profits.
Assuming you like craps, then you can still give yourself a reasonable chance to win. All you need to do is make bets with the lowest house edges and back them with odds.
You may not gain the upper hand on casinos this way. But at least you’ll have decent odds of winning, without blowing time and money on dice control.